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Oct 19, 2012
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it's 281 obama, 257 romney. if romney wins two of the sfooifts i mentioned, romney will win. i don't want to get drunk on hypotheticals, because let's be honest, that's more of a kornacki thing. steve, tell them what's the deal. >> i think there's a lot of different ways to look at athe electoral map, but the way i narrow is down is this. there's four obama states starting to lean towards romney. he really needs them and let's say he gets them. that's north carolina, florida, colorado and virginia. that puts him at 257. at that point to win the election there are two paths for mitt romney, and these are the fooift states to pay attention to. the first path is to win the state of ohio. he's your next president, but he's not doing that well in ohio. let's say he loses ohio. here's the next path. wisconsin may be more winnable at this point for the romney campaign than ohio is. we went over the reasons yesterday. if you win wisconsin all you need from romney is one of three states, new hampshire, iowa, or nevada. when wisconsin plus one of those, you're also over 270. those are
it's 281 obama, 257 romney. if romney wins two of the sfooifts i mentioned, romney will win. i don't want to get drunk on hypotheticals, because let's be honest, that's more of a kornacki thing. steve, tell them what's the deal. >> i think there's a lot of different ways to look at athe electoral map, but the way i narrow is down is this. there's four obama states starting to lean towards romney. he really needs them and let's say he gets them. that's north carolina, florida, colorado and...
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Oct 10, 2012
10/12
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the ryan campaign and romney campaign knows this is coming and looking at romney's performance, it was glib, superficially appealing. he was able to dance around not providing details so i don't know exactly how they do it. i just -- i have a kind of hunch that, you know, they'll find something that paul ryan can say that will, you know, that will get around the criticism that biden's going to come in with. >> on the lowering expectations front, the president came out said and he thinks joe biden is going to be terrific. surprisingly, they're not lowering expectations and i think trying to pump people up a little bit. you could not think of two different sort of political characters than joe biden and barack obama. obama's the deep thinker, the weary warrior. you have the sense in the first debate he didn't want to be there and shouldn't have to go through this. joe biden, on the other hand, i think he loves and embraces the political combat. i think he enjoys it and makes a big difference when you feel like the person on the stage is having fun. >> yeah. >> that makes a huge differenc
the ryan campaign and romney campaign knows this is coming and looking at romney's performance, it was glib, superficially appealing. he was able to dance around not providing details so i don't know exactly how they do it. i just -- i have a kind of hunch that, you know, they'll find something that paul ryan can say that will, you know, that will get around the criticism that biden's going to come in with. >> on the lowering expectations front, the president came out said and he thinks...
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Oct 24, 2012
10/12
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mitt romney is not one of them. mitt romney is a person who has said i do believe in exceptions for rape and the health of the mother. so, i think that these two cases certainly democrats made a lot of hay out of the akin and very successful for them politically. i can see them trying to do the same with mourdock. it will be very successful and i think steve to your point that you're right that it will sort of cement the narrative that obama is the woman kand date, the candidate for women. and mitt romney is the candidate for men. >> and certainly in terms of control of the senate, one more example where extremism has cost republicans a seat that they should have got. >> i should just point out. 10 million more women voters than men. 54% of the electorate. leading among men is not leading among women. >> i think there's agreement of both sides and heard people of both sides of a tug of a very specific demographic. married mothers who they think are the difference in colorado or ohio and torn because they have really
mitt romney is not one of them. mitt romney is a person who has said i do believe in exceptions for rape and the health of the mother. so, i think that these two cases certainly democrats made a lot of hay out of the akin and very successful for them politically. i can see them trying to do the same with mourdock. it will be very successful and i think steve to your point that you're right that it will sort of cement the narrative that obama is the woman kand date, the candidate for women. and...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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i've given romney north carolina and florida, swing states and ohio, romney colorado. give obama ohio and new hampshire. i think the point i want to make about this map is a broader one and it's a criticism and an expression of bafflement about the romney campaign strategy. if you look at that map, to win to get to 270, they have to win virginia, florida, north carolina. got to win colorado. putting that together, pick off ohio or some combination of wisconsin and plus new hampshire, iowa, nevada. a combination there and the polls out of ohio and wisconsin, not looking good for romney. to me the issue is this. there are states on the map that could have been competitive. oregon, michigan, minnesota, pennsylvania and even maybe where obama had big margins in 2008 like 15, 16-point margins but you have to go back to 2004 to see, you know, a three-point race in minnesota. a three-point race in michigan. these are states, there's a lot of flexibility in these states. if romney with all the money he had and republicans had, outside money, if they had targeted the states ear
i've given romney north carolina and florida, swing states and ohio, romney colorado. give obama ohio and new hampshire. i think the point i want to make about this map is a broader one and it's a criticism and an expression of bafflement about the romney campaign strategy. if you look at that map, to win to get to 270, they have to win virginia, florida, north carolina. got to win colorado. putting that together, pick off ohio or some combination of wisconsin and plus new hampshire, iowa,...
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Oct 26, 2012
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these people know romney really well. if they still haven't come around to say it's romney then i don't know what will do that. speaking of coming around you said that with smiling face at the top. no that was rolling stone. >> i only heard a few bars of it. >> two bars. >> you requested it. of course you know who it was. >> i only knew it last night. >> have we settled this. >> we're back there. >> i have to say i'm fascinated by this libertarian colony. you pointed out something yesterday about how in some ways this election is coming down to discomfort with the economy versus discomfort with the republican party in a mitt romney on social issues and to me new hampshire is the perfect example of that. it has a long history of feminism. it was the first state to ratify the era. if the democrats sweep this time around you'll have for the first time ever a state whose entire congressional delegation and governor are all women which is an incredible thing which may help them. the president has a huge gender gap in the state
these people know romney really well. if they still haven't come around to say it's romney then i don't know what will do that. speaking of coming around you said that with smiling face at the top. no that was rolling stone. >> i only heard a few bars of it. >> two bars. >> you requested it. of course you know who it was. >> i only knew it last night. >> have we settled this. >> we're back there. >> i have to say i'm fascinated by this libertarian...
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Oct 30, 2012
10/12
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indiana, romney wins that, done. north carolina, romney will probably do that. it's still dicey. florida even more dicey. colorado, even a little more dicey and even dicey is won by far then in virginia. if romney can put altogether plus mccain, that puts him at 257. you talk about take off ohio, and you're the president of the united states. wisconsin and one of new hampshire, iowa, nevada, you're president of united states. you have a lot of combinations in play for romney. the problem is this. virginia is dead even right now. krystal is right. if obama picks up virginia, it ends things. >> it's dead even right now, but one of the things karen finney pointed out is latinos are underpolled nationwide partly because of a language barrier. you don't get an accurate reading and we talked about before in 2010 colorado, harry reid, a lot of latinos there. they trailed sharon engel by three points at the end and he wins. they're not correctly polling latinos and hispanics. virginia is a huge thing. 80% of the state, and a 92% increase since 2000. if you see an irregularity or differen
indiana, romney wins that, done. north carolina, romney will probably do that. it's still dicey. florida even more dicey. colorado, even a little more dicey and even dicey is won by far then in virginia. if romney can put altogether plus mccain, that puts him at 257. you talk about take off ohio, and you're the president of the united states. wisconsin and one of new hampshire, iowa, nevada, you're president of united states. you have a lot of combinations in play for romney. the problem is...